“No, I’m not kidding, it’s SOLD!”
Something has happened to the “doom & gloom” real estate market in San Diego County. Good news is becoming more the norm, when it comes to discussions around the water-cooler. Homeowners, buyers, and their agents are noticing the disappearance of “For Sale” signs in their neighborhoods. Are termites eating them? Is it delusional wishful thinking? Reports are coming in from reliable sources that echo the masses. It appears the bottom IS finally here and in fact, has been here for several months now.
We’re seeing reduced numbers of foreclosures coming on the market, and they’re selling within days after listing. Even the once shunned ’short sale’ property is now fielding multiple offers in a matter of days after listing. AND…get this…the winning bid is typically higher than asking price AND is being sold As-Is!
DataQuick just reported that the proportion of former foreclosures being sold dropped to 47.3 percent of all resales, compared with the record 55 percent in January 2009. Hmm…
“Top 5 signs we’re (finally) at the bottom of the housing market…”
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Median home price stops decline AND increases
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Active listings have decreased (sales outpace new listings)
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Housing inventory supply drops from 4 months to 3 months
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Builders confirm sales volume AND traffic increase
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Buyer confidence is high, belief that market has hit bottom
Can we confirm our suspicions? Read on. According to a recent article by the Union Tribune’s SignOnSanDiego.com, “Home Prices Rise, Local Builders Optimistic“, we are here and… the smart money is buying.
Over at Inman News, THE must read guide to the brightest buyer, investor, agent, home owner, brokers or anyone wishing to avoid the spin and get real data on the state of the market… there’s more positive than negative.
In their article dated June 29, 2009, “For-sale inventory halved in California“, they confirm that the for-sale inventory of homes has dropped by more that half from May 2008 to May 2009. Note: To read the full article, you have to purchase a 1-year Premium Membership for $149.95. Hey, it’s better than being uninformed and making a mistake costing thousands. (No, we aren’t affiliated with them, they’re just really really smart so we like them) Want to read the entire article & not join Inman? Email us and we’ll send it to you free!
SanDiegoSunCoast@gmail.com
More great news…MDA DataQuick confirmed that the median home price in San Diego County actually rose (for a change) albeit just slightly, to $290,000 last month. OK, so this makes us smile, not broadly, but a lopsided grin.
Digging further into the stats, we learned that it was the 3rd month that the median stayed the same (like, in not dropping yet again as it has over the past 18 months!) Back in January of this year, the median home price was a whopping (insert sarcasm here) $280,000. Despite our grumbling, it inched up to $285,000 in February and March. Not bad. Gimme any movement up.
Whoops, more good news… Builder’s sales volume is up 11.8 percent from March. According to the UT article, Borre Winckel, (love his name!) chief executive at the San Diego County Building Industry Association, said “Builders believe the local market has reached the bottom. They report more visitors to sales offices and expect to sell out of virtually all standing inventory of completed single-family homes next month.” Time to dust off the human sign spinners! To your corners men!
“Active listings are down…”
The local Multiple Listing Service (San Diego Association of Realtors) reported the number of active listings to be roughly 13,350, down about 500 homes from a month ago, and off by 27.1 percent from levels reported a year ago. What does this mean? Lets do some simple math…
Less homes on the market + active buyers = more demand = more sales = equal less homes on the market = scarcity. End result? Prices begin to rise.
According to David Cabot, executive VP of Prudential California Realty, “Southern California has been singled out as the most likely region to bottom out and recover first because it was the first to enter the housing slump.” Most importantly, his firm has not seen the usual large increase of listing activity typically seen by May.
Many agents we have spoken with confirm that large numbers of investors and savvy buyers have been quietly scooping distressed properties. Foreclosures, short sales, repo’s, ‘gone belly-up’ corporate owned homes and the like, in record numbers. We say quietly, because THEY don’t want YOU to know what THEY are doing. Why? Because then YOU will do it too, and then THEY will have to pay MORE to beat out YOUR offer. Again, simple math.
“Only the strong survive…”
Buyers with strong incomes and strong financial profiles are taking over the real estate market. Distressed property is being absorbed by the strong at a steady pace. The weak are relinquishing their tenuous hold. It’s the way of the world since primordial ooze. Have meat and you can buy a cave. It’s just survival of the fittest. So the message here? The smart money is buying NOW.
